PRODUCTION OF CARDBOARD PACKAGING
In 2014 Russia produced 144.8 thousand tons of cases from cardboard and 184 thousand tons of packs. All in all during 2014 Russia produced 328.9 thousand tons of consumer packaging from cardboard.
Production volume of cardboard consumer packaging in 2014 grew by 11.1%. Besides, share of cases in total production volume increased from 32.9% in 2010 to 44% in 2014.
Shares of Federal Districts in production volume differ by package kinds. For instance, share of Central FD in production of packs constituted 79.3% in 2014 while in production of cases share of this FD during the same period was smaller and constituted 35.8%. Meanwhile share of Northwestern FD in production of packs constituted 18.8% and in production of cases - 27.6%.
In 2015 situation changed. Total production volume of consumer packaging from cardboard in January-August 2015 constituted about 178.4 thousand tons, by 15.2% less than during the same period of previous year. Structure of production volume also changed: production volume of packs declined by 5.1% in January-August 2015 while production volume of cases declined by 28.7%.
As it has been already mentioned in 2014 production volume of cardboard packaging in Russia constituted about 329 thousand tons (packaging materials based on fluted board and PE film were not considered). In terms of production volumes there are two large manufacturers of the review category in Russia: “Tetra Pak” CJSC (packaging for liquid food products) and “Amcor Tobacco Packaging Novgorod” LLC (rigid folding packaging for cigarettes). Together these two companies consume over 100 thousand tons of cardboard annually.
Export of cardboard packaging from Russia remains quite insignificant. In 2012 export volume constituted 5.3 thousand tons, in 2013 it remained almost at the same level, in 2014 devaluation of ruble underpinned export volume and it rocketed by 22.5% to reach 6.5 thousand tons.
In value terms export of the review category increased by 15.7% while in volume it grew by 22.5%. It means that among other reasons increase of export was stimulated by reduced cost of Russian cardboard packaging.
This year export volume started to decline. By preliminary estimations, in 8 months of 2015 Russia exported only 3.2 thousand tons of the review category. So, in 12 months of 2015 export of cardboard packaging from Russia can make 4.8 thousand tons, by over 26% less than in 2014.
Another important trend observed in Russian export of cardboard consumer packaging in 2015 is significant decline of supplies to Ukraine, formerly main foreign buyer of the review category. By preliminary estimations, in 2015 export to Ukraine declined almost by 2 times.
About 43.3% of cardboard export volume (2.8 thousand tons) in 2014 was provided by “Amcor Tobacco Packaging Novgorod”. The company exports folding cardboard packs for cigarettes to Serbia and Ukraine.
Second large exporter of cardboard packaging in 2014 was “WestvacoEastPrint” LLC with 9.5% of export volume (614 tons). The company exports cardboard blanks of cigarette packs to Ukraine.
Third large exporter of cardboard packaging from Russia is “MoloPak” LLC with 8.1% of export volume (528 tons). The company supplies food packaging to Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Armenia.
In 2014 the largest segment of export of cardboard packaging was packs for tobacco (64.6% in volume). Second large segment was food packaging with 27.5%, and the third was packaging for non-food products (7.5% of export volume).
In 2014 Russia imported 62.7 thousand tons of cardboard packaging worth $180.7 million. In comparison to 2013 import declined both in volume and value respectively by 15.4% and 19.9%.
In January-August 2015 import of consumer packaging to Russia declined almost by 20% against the same period of previous year. Monthly dynamics demonstrates obvious descending trend so by the end of 2015 import of the review category to Russia can reduce down to 48-49 thousand tons.
In 2014 Russia purchased cardboard packaging in 69 countries. About 48.1% of import volume was provided by three countries: Ukraine, Germany and China; together these three countries supplied 30.2 thousand tons of cardboard packaging to Russia. Import from other countries varied from 0.9 thousand tons to 6.7 thousand tons. This group includes such countries as Lithuania, Poland, South Korea, Latvia, Hungary, Netherlands, Turkey and Estonia.
PERFORMANCE OF CARDBOARD PACKAGING MARKET IN 2015
Despite deepening of recession and start of currency crisis in the end of 2014, production volume of cardboard consumer packaging and the market in general demonstrated growth. However, problems accumulated in the review industry by 2015. In 2014 inflation rate exceeded 10% and by August 2015 it rocketed to 15.8%, ruble exchange rate declined by 2 times and access to bank loans was limited. Prices for cardboard for consumer packaging went straight up in the beginning of 2015, so the only solution for manufacturers was to increase prices for their products significantly. By May 2015 manufacturer prices for cardboard packaging grew by 10-15%, by August 2015 prices increased by 20-22% over December 2014. By the end of 2015 prices for the review category are forecasted to grow by 25-35%.
Besides, in 2015 packaging industry faced another problem. Continued growth of inflation, downswing of consumers’ purchasing power, delayed payments to suppliers caused among other reasons by unavailability of bank loans - all the named factors resulted in decline of the market of cardboard packaging. By August 2015 production volume of cardboard consumer packaging reduced by 15.2% in volume, export - by 25.6%, import - by 19.8%.
With consideration of the above facts it can be forecasted that in 2015 volume of the market of cardboard consumer packaging will decline by 15-18% in volume down to 316-327 thousand tons; share of imported cardboard is to reduce from 16.3% in 2014 to 14-15% in 2015.