Review of the Russian Beer MarketResearch by the Company “I-Marketing”
Stabilisation of beer and beer beverage production indicators is currently being observed in Russia.
The volume of beer and beer beverage production had been increasing up until 2007, when it amounted to 1,147 million decaliters. Later output of said produce in the country began to gradually decline: throughout the period from 2008 to 2015, production was dropping by 5% every year on average. The main reason for this turn of events was the state policy – namely bans on beer advertising, restrictions in sales and increased excise taxes. In 2016, the volume of beer and beer beverage production virtually remained at the level of 2015, whereas in the first quarter of the current year growth in the indicators was recorded.
It should be noted that beer production slightly declined in 2016, whereas output of beer drinks increased. The share of beer beverages in the overall structure of production is insignificant, although it is gradually increasing. In terms of packaging and sales restrictions, there is no actual difference between beer and beer drinks. The distinction lies in the product composition and alcohol content. Consumers often do not pay attention to the category to which the drink belongs, the price-brand-loyalty ratio serving as the main criterion for their choice.
The Volga and Central Federal Districts have been leading in the regional structure of beer and beer beverage production – in 2016 the two regions accounted for 29 and 28.4% of the total production volume in physical terms respectively. Obviously, said structure is caused by the population being concentrated in the federal districts in question. Over the past 6 years, the share of the Volga Federal District in the total Russian production increased, as opposed to the share of the Ural Federal District, which declined. No significant shifts occurred in the other federal districts during the given time period.
The most significant decline in production for the period from 2010 to 2016 was recorded in the Ural Federal District (-13% per year on average). It is followed by the Central Federal District (-6%) and the Siberian Federal District (-5%). Production was decreasing the slowest in the Volga and Far Eastern Federal Districts, declining by 2% on average every year.
The leading regions in beer and beer beverage production in 2016 were Samara region (53 million decaliters produced, which equals 7% of total Russian production), Saint Petersburg (52 million decaliters, or 7%), Moscow region (52 million decaliters, or 7%) and Novosibirsk region (41 million decaliters, or 5%).
The volume of supply in the Russian beer market amounted to 763 million decaliters in 2016. Production remained virtually at the level of 2015. Imports dropped by 17%, reaching 14.3 million decaliters, and exports increased by 23% to 32 million decaliters.
Imports of beer and beer drinks to Russia occupy around 2% of the market volume. In 2016 imports amounted to 14.3 million decaliters total, valued at $127.1 million; in the first quarter of 2017 they equaled 3.8 million decaliters valued at $32.7 million.
The key countries supplying beer to the Russian market are Belarus, which accounted for 26% of imports in physical terms in 2016, as well as Germany and Czech Republic, their shares amounting to 23 and 12% respectively. In value terms, the leaders are Germany with the share of 28%, Czech Republic with the share of 13%, and Belguim and Belarus with the shares of 12 and 11% in supplies respectively. It should be noted that since 2015 imports of Ukrainian beer and alcoholic beverages has been banned by Rospotrebnadzor (the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing). However, said ban did not affect the Russian market of beer and beer drinks: firstly, the share of Ukrainian products was insignificant; secondly, a number of companies managed to bypass the ban (for instance, "Obolon" PJSC agreed on licensed production of its beverages with the use of production facilities of "Moskovskaya Pivovarennaya Kompaniya (Moscow Beer Brewing Company)" OJSC).
The leading foreign beer and beer beverage suppliers to Russia are the following companies: “Spaten” (Germany, “Spaten” trademark), “Compania Cervecera Del Tropico” (Mexico, “Corona Extra” trademark), “Tradicni Pivovar v Rakovniku” (Czech Republic; “Bakalar”, “Cernovar” and “Prazacka” trademarks) and “Diageo” (Ireland; “Guinness”, “Harp”, “Kilkenny” and “Smithwicks” trademarks). We would also like to highlight the “Anheuser-Busch Inbev” corporation, which supplies produce from Belgium (“Leffe”, “Hoegaarden” and “Belle-Vue” trademarks), Great Britain (“Boddington’s” trademark), China (“Harbin” trademark) and several other countries.
The volume of Russian beer exports in 2016 amounted to 32 million decaliters (+23% against 2015) valued at $ 125 million (+18%). The key recipient countries of Russian exports were Belarus (20% in physical terms and 19% in monetary terms in 2016), Ukraine (37 and 30% respectively) and Kazakhstan (15 and 16% respectively).
The volume of retail sales of beer and beer drinks amounted to 841 million decaliters in 2016. Which is 4% lower than the level of 2015, when this indicator was reaching 874 million decaliters. The leading regions in terms of beer sales were Moscow, where 92 million decaliters were sold in 2016 (11% of the overall volume), and Moscow region – 78 million decaliters, or 9%. It should be noted that in 2016 an increase in retail sales of beer and beer beverages occurred in Moscow region (+7%), Krasnodar Krai (+2%) and Bashkiria (+41%). Most of the other regions demonstrated a decline in sales during the given period.
In 2017, the Russian beer market will demonstrate slight growth compared to 2016, which is estimated to be 1–2%.
It is obvious that future development of the beer market depends upon state regulation; at the same time, no indulgence in terms of excise rates is to be expected. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation suggested that the rates for alcohol and tobacco be kept at the same level in 2018–2019 and indexed by 4% in 2020 in accordance with the forecasted inflation level. Starting with 2020, the institution is planning to increase the excise tax from 21 to 22 rubles per liter for beer and beer beverages with alcohol content of 0.5–8.6% and from 39 to 41 rubles per liter for said beverages with alcohol content above 8.6%.