Meat is one of the main food products for Russians – according to the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat), in 2017 meat accounts for 4.6% in the overall structure of consumer spending in Russia. Therefore the situation in the market in terms of consumption is particularly interesting. Let us look at per capita meat consumption volumes and focus on such indicators as volumes and structure of meat production as well as import and export volumes.
According to Rosstat, the volume of meat consumption in the country declined by 3% in the period from 2013 to 2016.
In 2016, consumer prices for meat of different categories demonstrated a drop against 2013 while staying at the level of 121–127%. At the same time, growth in the average monthly nominal accrued wages of Russians equaled 23%. This situation, when the increase in prices for meat surpassed wage growth, made consumers switch from meat categories with a more rapid price increase such as beef and pork to the cheapest meat available (chicken), or reduce meat consumption instead.
In 2016 the volume of cattle and poultry production for slaughter in farms of all categories amounted to 14 million tons in live weight, having grown by 4% compared to 2015.
In January–May 2017, according to “Market Analitika”, farms of all categories combined produced 5.4 million tons of livestock and poultry in live weight, which is 3.1% higher than in 2016. Production of pigs for slaughter increased by 4.1%, and so did production of poultry for slaughter. Cattle production as well as goat and sheep production declined by 1%.
According to Rosstat, the volume of meat production in slaughter weight amounted to 9.9 million tons in 2016, having grown by 3.5% compared to 2015.
All in all, during the past 3 years production growth rates of all meat categories have slowed down.
In the structure of meat production in slaughter weight among farm of all categories, in 2016 the leading positions were held by agricultural organisations, which had the market share of 75.9% – growth in their share against 2013 exceeded 5%. Household plots were second and occupied 21.1%, while farms and sole traders were third with the share of 2.9%.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the main region for meat production in slaughter weight in 2016 was the Central Federal District – its share amounted to 35.7% of the market. The production growth rate of the Central region remains the highest in Russia in absolute terms (+168 thousand tons against 2015). In relative terms the leader in growth is the Southern Federal District (+11.5%).
The structure of meat production by types underwent certain changes. The largest increase in production can be observed in the poultry segment: in 2016 production grew by 21% compared to 2013. Growth in the pork segment equaled 20%, whereas production of beef decreased by 1%.
The structure of Russian imports by meat varieties changed as well. In 2013, the segments of beef and pork occupied 31 and 30% of supplies respectively, whereas the poultry segment amounted to 20%, and 19% belonged to other types of meat. In 2016, compared to 2015, the share of the poultry segment in imports increased by 3%; the share of the beef segment grew by 6%; the share of the pork segment declined by 4%; and the share of other meat varieties dropped by 6%.
Beef and pork were the largest segments in the structure of meat imports in 2016.
Regarding the largest meat suppliers to the Russian market, according to IKAR (the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies), in 2013 the leading positions belonged to Brazil and Belarus – these countries supplied 512 thousand and 252 thousand tons respectively.
In January–April 2017 the leader was Brazil, accounting for over 50% of imports, or 149 thousand tons, which exceeds the volume of supplies in the similar period of 2016 by 3.5%. Belarus was second with the share of 26% in the structure of meat imports and the import volume of 78 thousand tons, which is 4.3% lower than the indicator for the previous year. In the time period in question, there was also an increase of 5.3% in supplies from Paraguay, which grew from 22 thousand tons to 23 thousand tons, the share of this country in the structure of imports amounting to 8%.
There was an increase in meat import volumes from the following countries: Argentina – by 48% (share of 8% in the structure of imports); Uruguay – by 140% (share of 2% in the structure of imports); Kazakhstan – by 42% (share of 1% in the structure of imports).
Supplies from the following countries decreased: Chile – by 27%; Colombia – by 6%; New Zealand – by 30%; Mongolia – by 49%.
In the situation that formed in the market, players may face the following obstacles:
• high level of competition, which may negatively affect financial results as well as lead to a reduction in the market share or a company’s market exit;
• lack of funds (investments), as maintaining one’s position and share growth in the market requires considerable expenses on promotion and advertising, appropriate production volumes as well as expansion to other regions and foreign markets;
• growth in prices for livestock feeds, which may increase the costs;
• animal diseases;
• purchasing power volatility.