Traditionally, the Russian confectionery market is divided into 2 main segments – sweet bakery and sugar confections. These segments are examined separately, as they have different raw material bases, which, in turn, have a significant impact on the development of the segments in question.
Russian statistics include a number of large categories monitored. Categories in the segment of bakers’ confectionery are as follows:
* flour confections and cakes with a short shelf life;
* biscuits, gingerbreads, waffles and similar goods;
The segment of sugar confectionery includes:
* chocolate and sugar-based confections;
* boiled sweets.
Let us examine the dynamics of Russian production in different categories of confectionery during the past few years.
Production of flour confections and cakes with a short shelf life demonstrated a slight decline in 2015, following growth in 2013–2014. Since then, the volume of production has remained virtually unchanged at the level of 348.6 thousand tons per year. 250.7 thousand tons of goods in the category were produced in January–September 2017, whereas the volume for the same period of 2016 amounted to 252.6 thousand tons. Based on said value, one can expect output volumes of 334–352 thousand tons in 2017, implying no significant increase in production.
Production of biscuits, gingerbreads, waffles and similar products amounted to 1,411 thousand tons in 2016. All in all, positive dynamics of production have been observed, and even during the crisis years the category was demonstrating growth. The volume of production of confectionery goods in question reached 1,095 thousand tons in the first 9 months of 2017, whereas in the similar period of 2016 it equalled 1,039 thousand tons. According to forecasts, the value for the whole year 2017 will amount to 1,460 thousand tons.
In 2016, there was a slight increase in production of chocolate and sugar confections, and it reached 1,792 thousand tons. Considering that the production volume amounted to 1,253 thousand tons in January–September 2017, the value at the end of 2017 may reach 1,806 thousand tons. For comparison, the volume of production in the first 9 months of 2016 equalled 1,213 thousand tons.
In recent years, production of hard candies has been growing in the Russian Federation: production volume of 212 thousand tons was recorded in 2016, whereas the volume for 2017 is expected to reach 222 thousand tons. Comparing the data for the first 9 months of the year, the volume amounted to 160.2 thousand tons in 2016 and 167.1 thousand tons in 2017.
To sum up, there have been a decline in production of flour confections with a short shelf life, zero growth in the categories of chocolate and sugar confectionery, and an increase in the categories of boiled sweets and flour confectionery with a long shelf life.
Regarding the regional structure of domestic confectionery production, it should be noted that the distribution of production across federal districts has been stable. The largest volume of production of flour confections and cakes with a short shelf life falls on the Central Federal District – the share of this region equalled 25.9% in 2016, as opposed to 24.4% in 2015. The Siberian, Southern and Northwestern Federal Districts accounted for 19.2, 14.6 and 12.7% respectively in 2016.
The Central and Volga Federal Districts were leading in the category of biscuits in 2016. Their shares equalled 24.5 and 20.4% respectively. Significant indicators were also demonstrated by the Southern and Ural Federal District – 19.8 and 15.9% respectively.
In the category of chocolate and sugar confections, more than 50% of production is occupied by the Central Federal District. A significant share of 19.4% belongs to the Siberian Federal District. A similar situation can be observed in the market of hard candy: 61% of the total production volume in 2016 fell on the Central Federal District, and the Siberian Federal District was second with a wide gap, accounting for 11.9%.
The volume of confectionery retail sales in Russia equalled 979.5 billion rubles in 2016, whereas in the first 9 months of 2017 it amounted to 730.7 billion rubles. The indicator for the similar period of 2016 equalled 675.1 billion rubles.
Growth in sales is not only due to increased production or imports, but mainly due to annual growth in prices for goods.
According to the Russian State Statistics Service, virtually all product categories demonstrate an annual price increase. It is most pronounced in the category of chocolate and the least significant in gingerbreads and biscuits.
It should be noted that the share of Russians’ expenditures on confectionery goods remains practically unchanged. ‘Chocolate and sugar confections’ is the only category that demonstrated a slight jump in 2016.
A drop in confectionery imports was recorded in 2015. In 2016, imports virtually remained at the level of 2015. According to data for the first 3 quarters of 2017, imports of sugar-based confections not containing cocoa are already higher than the volume for the whole year 2016. Volumes in the remaining categories are likely to stay at the level of 2016 this year.
Exports of confections in 2016 remained virtually unchanged compared to 2015. A jump in exports in the ‘waffle’ category should be highlighted. Based on the data for January–September 2017, this year’s exports are expected to stay at the level of the previous year. This indicates stable operation of Russian manufacturers, which provide a fixed volume of supplies abroad.
Exports slightly exceed imports in all categories except finished cocoa-containing goods without filling. The largest volumes of imports and exports can be observed in the category of confectionery products not containing cocoa.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the market of confectionery products, along with all its separate product segments, is saturated. It is an established, well-developed market. Its growth mainly occurs through extensive development of companies. During the 2014–2015 crisis, the market ‘froze’, and its oldest large players were trying to wait out this difficult time. In 2017, analysts at “Step by Step” observed the first slight dynamic shifts towards a new wave of market development. For now, said growth is very slight, as the consequences of the crisis as well as certain bans on imported goods keep affecting the state of the market. Nevertheless, even this situation offers prospects for growth, mainly connected with the introduction of new unique product types to the market.
“Step by Step” Group